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Science 20 November 1992:
Vol. 258. no. 5086, pp. 1328 - 1332
DOI: 10.1126/science.258.5086.1328
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Articles

Change in Failure Stress on the Southern San Andreas Fault System Caused by the 1992 Magnitude = 7.4 Landers Earthquake

Ross S. Stein 1, Geoffrey C. P. King 2, and Jian Lin 3

1 U.S. Geological Survey, Mail Stop 977, Menlo Park, CA 94025
2 Institut de Physique du Globe, Strasbourg 67084, France
3 Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543

The 28 June Landers earthquake brought the San Andreas fault significantly closer to failure near San Bernardino, a site that has not sustained a large shock since 1812. Stress also increased on the San Jacinto fault near San Bernardino and on the San Andreas fault southeast of Palm Springs. Unless creep or moderate earthquakes relieve these stress changes, the next great earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault is likely to be advanced by one to two decades. In contrast, stress on the San Andreas north of Los Angeles dropped, potentially delaying the next great earthquake there by 2 to 10 years.

Submitted on August 25, 1992
Accepted on October 22, 1992


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