Reconstruction and future trends of the AIDS epidemic in the United States

doi:10.1126/science.2063206

Account Information

Guest Alerts | Access Rights | My Account | Sign In

Site Navigation

Article Views

Article Tools

My Science

Science 5 July 1991:
Vol. 253. no. 5015, pp. 37 - 42
DOI: 10.1126/science.2063206

Prev | Table of Contents | Next

Articles

Science, Vol 253, Issue 5015, 37-42
Copyright © 1991 by American Association for the Advancement of Science

articles

Reconstruction and future trends of the AIDS epidemic in the United States

R Brookmeyer

Department of Biostatistics, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205.

There has been considerable uncertainty in estimates of past and current human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection rates in the United States. Statistical estimates of historical infection rates can be obtained from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence data and the incubation period. However, this approach is subject to a number of sources of uncertainty and two other approaches, epidemic models of HIV transmission and surveys of HIV prevalence, are used to corroborate and refine the statistical estimates. Analyses suggest the HIV infection rate in the United States grew rapidly in the early 1980s, peaked in the mid-1980s, and subsequently declined markedly. Due both to the decline in the underlying infection rate and to the development of effective therapies that may delay AIDS diagnosis, overall AIDS incidence may plateau during the next 5 years. However, the number of individuals with advanced HIV disease without a diagnosis of AIDS who could potentially benefit from therapy is expected to increase 40% by 1995 as infected individuals progress to more advanced stages of HIV disease. Thus, although the overall HIV infection rate has declined, the demands on the U.S. health care system for treatment and care of HIV-infected individuals remain enormous.

THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:

The Reemerging HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Men Who Have Sex With Men.: H. W. Jaffe, R. O. Valdiserri, and K. M. De Cock (2007)
JAMA 298, 2412-2414
| Full Text » | PDF »

HIV Prevention, Cost-Utility Analysis, and Race/Ethnicity: Methodological Considerations and Recommendations.: D. R. Holtgrave (2004)
Med Decis Making 24, 181-191
| Abstract » | PDF »

Extending backcalculation to analyse BSE data.: C A Donnelly, N M Ferguson, A C Ghani, and R M Anderson (2003)
Statistical Methods in Medical Research 12, 177-190
| Abstract » | PDF »

The predictability of the epidemic of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease by back-calculation methods.: J. N H. d'Aignaux, S. N Cousens, and P. G Smith (2003)
Statistical Methods in Medical Research 12, 203-220
| Abstract » | PDF »

New Testing Strategy to Detect Early HIV-1 Infection for Use in Incidence Estimates and for Clinical and Prevention Purposes.: R. S. Janssen, G. A. Satten, S. L. Stramer, B. D. Rawal, T. R. O'Brien, B. J. Weiblen, F. M. Hecht, N. Jack, F. R. Cleghorn, J. O. Kahn, et al. (1998)
JAMA 280, 42-48
| Abstract » | Full Text » | PDF »

Trends in HIV Incidence Among Young Adults in the United States.: P. S. Rosenberg and R. J. Biggar (1998)
JAMA 279, 1894-1899
| Abstract » | Full Text » | PDF »

Scope of the AIDS Epidemic in the United States.: P. S. Rosenberg (1995)
Science 270, 1372-1375
| Abstract » | PDF »

Declining Age at HIV Infection in the United States.: P. S. Rosenberg, R. J. Biggar, and J. J. Goedert (1994)
N. Engl. J. Med. 330, 789-790
| Full Text »

AIDS: the statistical basis for public health.: D. De Angelis, N. Day, S. Gore, W. Gilks, and M. McGee (1993)
Statistical Methods in Medical Research 2, 75-91
| Abstract » | PDF »

Predictability of the UK Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease Epidemic.: J. N. H. d'Aignaux, S. N. Cousens, and P. G. Smith (2001)
Science 294, 1729-1731
| Abstract » | Full Text » | PDF »