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Science 21 September 1990:
Vol. 249. no. 4975, pp. 1412 - 1416
DOI: 10.1126/science.249.4975.1412
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Articles

Forecasting Damaging Earthquakes in the Central and Eastern United States

S. P. Nishenko 1 and G. A. Bollinger 2

1 National Earthquake Information Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO 80225
2 U.S. Geological Survey and Seismological Observatory, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061

Analysis of seismograph network data, earthquake catalogs from 1727 to 1982, and paleoseismic data for the central and eastern United States indicate that the Poisson probability of a damaging earthquake (magnitude ge 6.0) occurring during the next 30 years is at a moderate to high level (0.4 to 0.6). When differences in seismic wave attenuation are taken into account, the central and eastern United States has approximately two-thirds the likelihood of California to produce an earthquake with comparable damage area and societal impact within the next 30 years.


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Common features of the excitation and propagation of strong ground motion for North American earthquakes.
T. C. HANKS and A. C. JOHNSTON (1992)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 82, 1-23
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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)