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Science 19 January 1990:
Vol. 247. no. 4940, pp. 286 - 293
DOI: 10.1126/science.247.4940.286
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Articles

The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake: An Anticipated Event

U.S. Geological Survey Staff

Office of Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Engineering, U.S. Geological Survey, Mail Stop 977, 345 Middlefield Road, Menlo Park, CA 94025

The first major earthquake on the San Andreas fault since 1906 fulfilled a long-term forecast for its rupture in the southern Santa Cruz Mountains. Severe damage occurred at distances of up to 100 kilometers from the epicenter in areas underlain by ground known to be hazardous in strong earthquakes. Stronger earthquakes will someday strike closer to urban centers in the United States, most of which also contain hazardous ground. The Loma Prieta earthquake demonstrated that meaningful predictions can be made of potential damage patterns and that, at least in well-studied areas, long-term forecasts can be made of future earthquake locations and magnitudes. Such forecasts can serve as a basis for action to reduce the threat major earthquakes pose to the United States.


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Ground-Motion Modeling of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake, Part I: Validation Using the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake.
B. T. Aagaard, T. M. Brocher, D. Dolenc, D. Dreger, R. W. Graves, S. Harmsen, S. Hartzell, S. Larsen, and M. L. Zoback (2008)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 98, 989-1011
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Estimating Locations and Magnitudes of Earthquakes in Southern California from Modified Mercalli Intensities.
W. H. Bakun (2006)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 96, 1278-1295
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Kinematic Source Parameters for the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake from the Nonlinear Inversion of Accelerograms.
A. Emolo and A. Zollo (2005)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 95, 981-994
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Forecasts of the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake.
R. A. Harris (1998)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 88, 898-916
   Abstract »    PDF »
Simulation of the response of the Marina District Basin, San Francisco, California, to the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake.
B. Zhang and A. S. Papageorgiou (1996)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 86, 1382-1400
   Abstract »    PDF »
Simulation of 3D elastic wave propagation in the Salt Lake Basin.
K. B. Olsen, J. C. Pechmann, and G. T. Schuster (1995)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 85, 1688-1710
   Abstract »    PDF »
Recurrent liquefaction induced by the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and 1990 and 1991 aftershocks: Implications for paleoseismicity studies.
J. D. Sims and C. D. Garvin (1995)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 85, 51-65
   Abstract »    PDF »
Magnitude-distance relations for liquefaction in soil from earthquakes.
G. A. PAPADOPOULOS and G. LEFKOPOULOS (1993)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 83, 925-938
   Abstract »    PDF »
Mechanism Diversity of the Loma Prieta Aftershocks and the Mechanics of Mainshock-Aftershock Interaction.
G. C. Beroza, G. C. Beroza, and M. D. Zoback (1993)
Science 259, 210-213
   Abstract »    PDF »
Fault Zone Connectivity: Slip Rates on Faults in the San Francisco Bay Area, California.
R. Bilham, R. Bilham, and P. Bodin (1992)
Science 258, 281-284
   Abstract »    PDF »
Estimation of near-source ground motions from a teleseismically derived rupture model of the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake.
S. H. HARTZELL (1992)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 82, 1991-2013
   Abstract »    PDF »
Response of Regional Seismicity to the Static Stress Change Produced by the Loma Prieta Earthquake.
P. A. Reasenberg, P. A. REASENBERG, and R. W. SIMPSON (1992)
Science 255, 1687-1690
   Abstract »    PDF »
Common features of the excitation and propagation of strong ground motion for North American earthquakes.
T. C. HANKS and A. C. JOHNSTON (1992)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 82, 1-23
   Abstract »    PDF »
Re-evaluation of 1906 surface faulting, geomorphic expression, and seismic hazard along the San Andreas fault in the southern Santa Cruz Mountains.
C. S. PRENTICE and D. P. SCHWARTZ (1991)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 81, 1424-1479
   Abstract »    PDF »
Off-fault ground ruptures in the Santa Cruz Mountains, California: Ridge-top spreading versus tectonic extension during the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake.
D. J. PONTI and R. E. WELLS (1991)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 81, 1480-1510
   Abstract »    PDF »
The seismic magnitude of the 1989 Loma Prieta mainshock determined from strong motion records.
R. A. UHRHAMMER and B. A. BOLT (1991)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 81, 1511-1517
   Abstract »    PDF »
Comparison of L1 and L2 norms in a teleseismic waveform inversion for the slip history of the Loma Prieta, California, earthquake.
S. H. HARTZELL, G. S. STEWART, and C. MENDOZA (1991)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 81, 1518-1539
   Abstract »    PDF »
Rupture model of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake from the inversion of strong-motion and broadband teleseismic data.
D. J. WALD, D. V. HELMBERGER, and T. H. HEATON (1991)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 81, 1540-1572
   Abstract »    PDF »
Rupture history of the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake.
J. H. STEIDL, R. J. ARCHULETA, and S. H. HARTZELL (1991)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 81, 1573-1602
   Abstract »    PDF »
Near-source modeling of the Loma Prieta earthquake: Evidence for heterogeneous slip and implications for earthquake hazard.
G. C. BEROZA (1991)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 81, 1603-1621
   Abstract »    PDF »
A broadband seismological investigation of the 1989 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake: Evidence for deep slow slip?.
T. C. WALLACE, A. VELASCO, J. ZHANG, and T. LAY (1991)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 81, 1622-1646
   Abstract »    PDF »
Ground motion at the San Francisco international airport from the Loma Prieta earthquake sequence, 1989.
A. MCGARR, M. CELEBI, E. SEMBERA, T. NOCE, and C. MUELLER (1991)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 81, 1923-1944
   Abstract »    PDF »
The Loma Prieta earthquake, ground motion, and damage in Oakland, Treasure Island, and San Francisco.
T. C. HANKS and A. G. BRADY (1991)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 81, 2019-2047
   Abstract »    PDF »
The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and its effects: Introduction to the special issue.
T. C. HANKS and H. KRAWINKLER (1991)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 81, 1415-1423
   PDF »
Relations Among Fault Behavior, Subsurface Geology, and Three-Dimensional Velocity Models.
A. J. Michael, A. J. MICHAEL, and D. EBERHART-PHILLIPS (1991)
Science 253, 651-654
   Abstract »    PDF »
Criticism of some forecasts of the national earthquake prediction evaluation council.
J. C. SAVAGE (1991)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 81, 862-881
   Abstract »    PDF »
Balance of Risks and Benefits in Preparation for Earthquakes.
B. A. Bolt and B. A. BOLT (1991)
Science 251, 169-174
   Abstract »    PDF »
Forecasting Damaging Earthquakes in the Central and Eastern United States.
S. P. Nishenko, S. P. Nishenko, and G. A. Bollinger (1990)
Science 249, 1412-1416
   Abstract »    PDF »


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