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Science 31 March 1989: Vol. 243. no. 4899, pp. 1668 - 1674 DOI: 10.1126/science.2648573
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Articles
Science, Vol 243, Issue 4899, 1668-1674
Copyright © 1989 by American Association for the Advancement of Science
Clinical versus actuarial judgment
RM Dawes,
D Faust,
and
PE Meehl
Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213.
Professionals are frequently consulted to diagnose and predict human behavior; optimal treatment and planning often hinge on the consultant's judgmental accuracy. The consultant may rely on one of two contrasting approaches to decision-making--the clinical and actuarial methods. Research comparing these two approaches shows the actuarial method to be superior. Factors underlying the greater accuracy of actuarial methods, sources of resistance to the scientific findings, and the benefits of increased reliance on actuarial approaches are discussed.
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