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Science 28 August 1987:
Vol. 237. no. 4818, pp. 985 - 991
DOI: 10.1126/science.237.4818.985
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Articles

Characterizing Criminal Careers

ALFRED BLUMSTEIN 1 and JACQUELINE COHEN 2

1 Dean and J. Erik Jonsson Professor at the School of Urban and Public Affairs at Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213.
2 Associate director of the Urban Systems Institute at the School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie-Mellon University.

Most knowledge about crime and criminals derives from cross-sectional analyses that link crime rates in a community with a community's attributes. The criminal-career approach focuses on individual offenders and considers their crime-committing patterns as a longitudinal stochastic process. This approach, which invokes parameters characterizing participation rate, initiation rate, termination rate and the associated career length, and individual offending frequency, offers some important new insights. For example, annual offending frequency appears to be reasonably constant with age for those offenders who stay criminally active, termination rates are relatively low for active offenders in their 30s, and offending frequencies seem to be relatively insensitive to demographic attributes for active offenders. All these observations are opposite to those that would be derived from cross-sectional analysis.


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