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Science 19 June 1987:
Vol. 236. no. 4808, pp. 1563 - 1567
DOI: 10.1126/science.236.4808.1563
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Articles

Statistical Short-Term Earthquake Prediction

Y. Y. KAGAN 1 and L. KNOPOFF 1

1 Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90024.

A statistical procedure, derived from a theoretical model of fracture growth, is used to identify a foreshock sequence while it is in progress. As a predictor, the procedure reduces the average uncertainty in the rate of occurrence for a future strong earthquake by a factor of more than 1000 when compared with the Poisson rate of occurrence. About one-third of all main shocks with local magnitude greater than or equal to 4.0 in central California can be predicted in this way, starting from a 7-year database that has a lower magnitude cut off of 1.5. The time scale of such predictions is of the order of a few hours to a few days for foreshocks in the magnitude range from 2.0 to 5.0.

Submitted on August 4, 1986
Accepted on April 1, 1987


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
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M. Wyss;, R. L. Aceves, S. K. Park;, R. J. Geller, D. D. Jackson, Y. Y. Kagan, and F. Mulargia; (1997)
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The use of foreshocks in probabilistic prediction along the Japan and Kuril trenches.
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A stochastic model for spatially and temporally dependent earthquakes.
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Alarm systems based on a pair of short-term earthquake precursors.
G. GRANDORI, E. GUAGENTI, and F. PEROTTI (1988)
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