Note to users. If you're seeing this message, it means that your browser cannot find this page's style/presentation instructions -- or possibly that you are using a browser that does not support current Web standards. Find out more about why this message is appearing, and what you can do to make your experience of our site the best it can be.

Science 30 August 1985:
Vol. 229. no. 4716, pp. 857 - 859
DOI: 10.1126/science.229.4716.857
Prev | Table of Contents | Next

Articles

Climate Response Times: Dependence on Climate Sensitivity and Ocean Mixing

J. HANSEN 1, G. RUSSELL 1, A. LACIS 1, I. FUNG 1, D. RIND 1, and P. STONE 2

1 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York 10025
2 Center for Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge 02139

The factors that determine climate response times were investigated with simple models and scaling statements. The response times are particularly sensitive to (i) the amount that the climate response is amplified by feedbacks and (ii) the representation of ocean mixing. If equilibrium climate sensitivity is 3°C or greater for a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration, then most of the expected warming attributable to trace gases added to the atmosphere by man probably has not yet occurred. This yet to be realized warming calls into question a policy of "wait and see" regarding the issue of how to deal with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and other trace gases.

Submitted on April 17, 1985
Accepted on July 1, 1985


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
From the Cover: Near-linear cost increase to reduce climate-change risk.
M. Schaeffer, T. Kram, M. Meinshausen, D. P. van Vuuren, and W. L. Hare (2008)
PNAS 105, 20621-20626
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise.
M. Lockwood (2008)
Proc R Soc A 464, 1387-1404
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Evaluating a technological fix for climate.
P. G. Brewer (2007)
PNAS 104, 9915-9916
   Full Text »    PDF »
Contributions of past and present human generations to committed warming caused by carbon dioxide.
P. Friedlingstein and S. Solomon (2005)
PNAS 102, 10832-10836
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications.
J. Hansen, L. Nazarenko, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, J. Willis, A. Del Genio, D. Koch, A. Lacis, K. Lo, S. Menon, et al. (2005)
Science 308, 1431-1435
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
The Climate Change Commitment.
T. M. L. Wigley (2005)
Science 307, 1766-1769
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario.
J. Hansen, M. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, and V. Oinas (2000)
PNAS 97, 9875-9880
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »


To Advertise     Find Products

Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)