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Science 16 August 1985:
Vol. 229. no. 4714, pp. 619 - 624
DOI: 10.1126/science.229.4714.619
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Articles

The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment

W. H. Bakun 1 and A. G. Lindh 1

1 Department of the Interior, Geological Survey, Branch of Seismology, 345 Middlefield Road, Menlo Park, California 94025.

Five moderate (magnitude 6) earthquakes with similar features have occurred on the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault in central California since 1857. The next moderate Parkfield earthquake is expected to occur before 1993. The Parkfield prediction experiment is designed to monitor the details of the final stages of the earthquake preparation process; observations and reports of seismicity and aseismic slip associated with the last moderate Parkfield earthquake in 1966 constitute much of the basis of the design of the experiment.


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
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Repeat Times of Large Earthquakes: Implications for Earthquake Mechanics and Long-Term Prediction.
L. R. Sykes and W. Menke (2006)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 96, 1569-1596
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Introduction to the Special Issue on the 2004 Parkfield Earthquake and the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment.
R. A. Harris and J R. Arrowsmith (2006)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 96, S1-S10
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Three-Dimensional Compressional Wavespeed Model, Earthquake Relocations, and Focal Mechanisms for the Parkfield, California, Region.
C. Thurber, H. Zhang, F. Waldhauser, J. Hardebeck, A. Michael, and D. Eberhart-Phillips (2006)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 96, S38-S49
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Recordings of the 2004 Parkfield Earthquake on the General Earthquake Observation System Array: Implications for Earthquake Precursors, Fault Rupture, and Coseismic Strain Changes.
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Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 96, S73-S89
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Kinematic Inversion of the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield Earthquake Including an Approximation to Site Effects.
P. Liu, S. Custodio, and R. J. Archuleta (2006)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 96, S143-S158
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Paleoseismic and Postseismic Observations of Surface Slip along the Parkfield Segment of the San Andreas Fault.
N. A. Toke, J R. Arrowsmith, J. J. Young, and C. J. Crosby (2006)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 96, S221-S238
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Surface Slip Associated with the 2004 Parkfield, California, Earthquake Measured on Alinement Arrays.
J. J. Lienkaemper, B. Baker, and F. S. McFarland (2006)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 96, S239-S249
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Coseismic and Postseismic Slip of the 2004 Parkfield Earthquake from Space-Geodetic Data.
I. A. Johanson, E. J. Fielding, F. Rolandone, and R. Burgmann (2006)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 96, S269-S282
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Slip on the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield, California, over Two Earthquake Cycles, and the Implications for Seismic Hazard.
J. Murray and J. Langbein (2006)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 96, S283-S303
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San Andreas M ~6 Earthquakes within 40 km of the Priest Valley End Zone of the 1857 Faulting.
T. Toppozada and D. Branum (2006)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 96, S385-S396
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The 2004 Parkfield Earthquake, the 1985 Prediction, and Characteristic Earthquakes: Lessons for the Future.
D. D. Jackson and Y. Y. Kagan (2006)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 96, S397-S409
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Probabilistic Warning Times for Earthquake Ground Shaking in the San Francisco Bay Area.
R. M. Allen (2006)
Seismological Research Letters 77, 371-376
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The Minimalist Model of Characteristic Earthquakes as a Useful Tool for Description of the Recurrence of Large Earthquakes.
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Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 93, 2415-2433
San Andreas Fault Zone, California: M >=5.5 Earthquake History.
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Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 92, 2555-2601
Three-Dimensional Excavation and Recent Rupture History along the Cholame Segment of the San Andreas Fault.
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A Brownian Model for Recurrent Earthquakes.
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Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 92, 2233-2250
High-Resolution Seismic Velocities and Shallow Structure of the San Andreas Fault Zone at Middle Mountain, Parkfield, California.
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Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 92, 2493-2503
Recent Rupture History of the San Andreas Fault Southeast of Cholame in the Northern Carrizo Plain, California.
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1857 Slip on the San Andreas Fault Southeast of Cholame, California.
(2001)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 91, 1659-1672
Short-term Exciting, Long-term Correcting Models for Earthquake Catalogs.
(2000)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 90, 849-858
Fault Slip Rates at Depth from Recurrence Intervals of Repeating Microearthquakes.
R. M. Nadeau and T. V. McEvilly (1999)
Science 285, 718-721
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Seismological studies at Parkfield VI: Moment release rates and estimates of source parameters for small repeating earthquakes.
R. M. Nadeau and L. R. Johnson (1998)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 88, 790-814
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Seismicity alert probabilities at Parkfield, California, revisited.
A. J. Michael and L. M. Jones (1998)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 88, 117-130
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Influence of fault bends on ruptures.
H. K. Acharya (1997)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 87, 1691-1696
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Water-level changes in response to the 20 December 1994 earthquake near Parkfield, California.
E. G. Quilty and E. A. Roeloffs (1997)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 87, 310-317
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Multiple precursors to the Landers earthquake.
H. Shifflett and R. Witbaard (1996)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 86, 113-121
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Microearthquake S-wave observations from 0 to 1 km in the Varian well at Parkfield, California.
D. Jongmans and P. E. Malin (1995)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 85, 1805-1820
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Area-based tests of long-term seismic hazard predictions.
S. N. Ward (1995)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 85, 1285-1298
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Precursory seismicity changes preceding moderate and large earthquakes in the Garm region, Central Asia.
B. Zheng, M. W. Hamburger, and G. A. Popandopulo (1995)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 85, 571-589
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Empirical earthquake probabilities from observed recurrence intervals.
J. C. Savage (1994)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 84, 219-221
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Stratigraphic evidence for seven meters of dextral slip on the San Andreas fault during the 1857 earthquake in the Carrizo Plain.
L. B. GRANT and K. SIEH (1993)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 83, 619-635
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The Parkfield prediction fallacy.
J. C. SAVAGE (1993)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 83, 1-6
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Stress Diffusion Along the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield, California.
P. E. Malin, P. E. Malin, and M. G. Alvarez (1992)
Science 256, 1005-1007
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The USGS Parkfield, California, dense seismograph array: Upsar.
J. B. FLETCHER, L. M. BAKER, P. SPUDICH, P. GOLDSTEIN, J. D. SIMS, and M. HELLWEG (1992)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 82, 1041-1070
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Relations Among Fault Behavior, Subsurface Geology, and Three-Dimensional Velocity Models.
A. J. Michael, A. J. MICHAEL, and D. EBERHART-PHILLIPS (1991)
Science 253, 651-654
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Criticism of some forecasts of the national earthquake prediction evaluation council.
J. C. SAVAGE (1991)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 81, 862-881
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Seismic Trapped Modes in the Oroville and San Andreas Fault Zones.
Y.-G. Li, Y.-G. Li, P. Leary, K. Aki, and P. Malin (1990)
Science 249, 763-766
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A detailed seismicity study of the Middle Mountain zone at Parkfield, California.
G. K. NISHIOKA and A. J. MICHAEL (1990)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 80, 577-588
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The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake: An Anticipated Event.
U.S. Geological Survey Staff (1990)
Science 247, 286-293
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The longer it has been since the last earthquake, the longer the expected time till the next?.
P. M. DAVIS, D. D. JACKSON, and Y. Y. KAGAN (1989)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 79, 1439-1456
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Microearthquake Imaging of the Parkfield Asperity.
P. E. Malin, P. E. MALIN, S. N. BLAKESLEE, M. G. ALVAREZ, and A. J. MARTIN (1989)
Science 244, 557-559
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Parkfield, California, liquefaction prediction.
T. L. HOLZER, M. J. BENNETT, T. L. YOUD, and A. T. F. CHEN (1988)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 78, 385-389
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Quasi-periodic occurrence of earthquakes in the 1978-1986 Bishop-Mammoth Lakes sequence, eastern California.
J. C. SAVAGE and R. S. COCKERHAM (1987)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 77, 1347-1358
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A generic recurrence interval distribution for earthquake forecasting.
S. P. NISHENKO and R. BULAND (1987)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 77, 1382-1399
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Regular Intervals Between Hawaiian Earthquakes: Implications for Predicting the Next Event.
M. Wyss and M. WYSS (1986)
Science 234, 726-728
   Abstract »    PDF »
Slip Deficit on the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield, California, as Revealed by Inversion of Geodetic Data.
P. Segall, P. SEGALL, and R. HARRIS (1986)
Science 233, 1409-1413
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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)