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Science 31 May 1985:
Vol. 228. no. 4703, pp. 1085 - 1087
DOI: 10.1126/science.228.4703.1085
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Articles

A Theory for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation

MARK A. CANE 1 and STEPHEN E. ZEBIAK 1

1 Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory, Palisades, New York 10964

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model is presented for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation that reproduces its major features, including its recurrence at irregular intervals. The interannual El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle is maintained by deterministic interactions in the tropical Pacific region. Ocean dynamics alter sea-surface temperature, changing the atmospheric heating; the resulting changes in surface wind alter the ocean dynamics. Annually varying mean conditions largely determine the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of El Niño events.

Submitted on December 27, 1984
Accepted on March 14, 1985


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