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Science 17 September 1982:
Vol. 217. no. 4565, pp. 1097 - 1104
DOI: 10.1126/science.217.4565.1097
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Articles

Forecasting Southern California Earthquakes

C. B. Raleigh 1, K. Sieh 2, L. R. Sykes 3, and D. L. Anderson 4

1 Director of Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York 10964, and professor of geological science at Columbia University, New York 10027
2 Assistant professor in the Division of Geological and Planetary Science, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena 91125
3 Associate director of Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory and Higgins professor of geological science at Columbia University
4 Director of the Seismological Laboratory and professor of geophysics at California Institute of Technology

Since 1978 and 1979, California has had a significantly higher frequency of moderate to large earthquakes than in the preceding 25 years. In the past such periods have also been associated with major destructive earthquakes, of magnitude 7 or greater, and the annual probability of occurrence of such an event is now 13 percent in California. The increase in seismicity is associated with a marked deviation in the pattern of strain accumulation, a correlation that is physically plausible. Although great earthquakes (magnitude greater than 7.5) are too infrequent to have clear associations with any pattern of seismicity that is now observed, the San Andreas fault in southern California has accumulated sufficient potential displacement since the last rupture in 1857 to generate a great earthquake along part or all of its length.


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Local magnitudes and apparent variations in seismicity rates in Southern California.
L. K. HUTTON and L. M. JONES (1993)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 83, 313-329
   Abstract »    PDF »
Tilt and Seismicity Changes in the Shumagin Seismic Gap.
J. BEAVAN, E. HAUKSSON, S. R. MCNUTT, R. BILHAM, and K. H. JACOB (1983)
Science 222, 322-325
   Abstract »    PDF »
Precursory surface deformation in great plate boundary earthquake sequences.
V. C. LI and J. R. RICE (1983)
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 73, 1415-1434
   Abstract »    PDF »
Spasmodic Tremor and Possible Magma Injection in Long Valley Caldera, Eastern California.
A. S. Ryall, A. RYALL, and F. RYALL (1983)
Science 219, 1432-1433
   Abstract »    PDF »


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