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Science 12 November 1976:
Vol. 194. no. 4266, pp. 685 - 690
DOI: 10.1126/science.194.4266.685
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Articles

Greenhouse Effects due to Man-Made Perturbations of Trace Gases

W. C. Wang 1, Y. L. Yung 1, A. A. Lacis 1, T. Mo 1, and J. E. Hansen 1

1 Atmospheric physicists at Goddard Space Flight Center, Institute for Space Studies, New York 10025

Nitrous oxide, methane, ammonia, and a number of other trace constituents in the earth's atmosphere have infrared absorption bands in the spectral region 7 to 14 µm and contribute to the atmospheric greenhouse effect. The concentrations of these trace gases may undergo substantial changes because of man's activities. Extensive use of chemical fertilizers and combustion of fossil fuels may perturb the nitrogen cycle, leading to increases in atmospheric N2O, and the same perturbing processes may increase the amounts of atmospheric CH4 and NH3. We use a one-dimensional radiative-convective model for the atmospheric thermal structure to compute the change in the surface temperature of the earth for large assumed increases in the trace gas concentrations; doubling the N2O, CH4, and NH3 concentrations is found to cause additive increases in the surface temperature of 0.7°, 0.3°, and 0.1°K, respectively. These systematic effects on the earth's radiation budget would have substantial climatic significance. It is therefore important that the abundances of these trace gases be accurately monitored to determine the actual trends of their concentrations.


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