Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes
Richard P. Allan1* and
Brian J. Soden2
Climate models suggest that extreme precipitation events will
become more common in an anthropogenically warmed climate. However,
observational limitations have hindered a direct evaluation
of model-projected changes in extreme precipitation. We used
satellite observations and model simulations to examine the
response of tropical precipitation events to naturally driven
changes in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content.
These observations reveal a distinct link between rainfall extremes
and temperature, with heavy rain events increasing during warm
periods and decreasing during cold periods. Furthermore, the
observed amplification of rainfall extremes is found to be larger
than that predicted by models, implying that projections of
future changes in rainfall extremes in response to anthropogenic
global warming may be underestimated.
2 Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami, FL 33149, USA.
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: r.p.allan{at}reading.ac.uk
