Note to users. If you're seeing this message, it means that your browser cannot find this page's style/presentation instructions -- or possibly that you are using a browser that does not support current Web standards. Find out more about why this message is appearing, and what you can do to make your experience of our site the best it can be.

Published Online February 1, 2007
Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1136843

Brevia

Submitted on October 27, 2006
Accepted on January 25, 2007

Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections

Stefan Rahmstorf 1*, Anny Cazenave 2, John A. Church 3, James E. Hansen 4, Ralph F. Keeling 5, David E. Parker 6, Richard C. J. Somerville 5

1 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.
2 Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales, Toulouse, France.
3 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, Hobart, Australia.
4 NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA.
5 Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, USA.
6 Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
Stefan Rahmstorf , E-mail: rahmstorf{at}ozean-klima.de

We present recent observed climate trends for carbon dioxide concentration, global-mean air temperature and sea level, and we compare these trends to previous model projections as summarised in the 2001 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC scenarios and projections start in the year 1990, which is also the base year of the Kyoto protocol in which almost all industrialised nations have committed to binding reductions of their greenhouse gas emissions. The data available for the period since 1990 raise concerns that the climate system, in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current generation of models indicates.


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Parallel Pursuit of Near-Term and Long-Term Climate Mitigation.
S. C. Jackson (2009)
Science 326, 526-527
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Higher trends but larger uncertainty and geographic variability in 21st century temperature and heat waves.
A. R. Ganguly, K. Steinhaeuser, D. J. Erickson III, M. Branstetter, E. S. Parish, N. Singh, J. B. Drake, and L. Buja (2009)
PNAS 106, 15555-15559
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Rebuttal of "Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit".
S. C. Amstrup, H. Caswell, E. DeWeaver, I. Stirling, D. C. Douglas, B. G. Marcot, and C. M. Hunter (2009)
Interfaces 39, 353-369
   Abstract »    PDF »
From the Cover: Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "reasons for concern".
J. B. Smith, S. H. Schneider, M. Oppenheimer, G. W. Yohe, W. Hare, M. D. Mastrandrea, A. Patwardhan, I. Burton, J. Corfee-Morlot, C. H. D. Magadza, et al. (2009)
PNAS 106, 4133-4137
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
A geophysiologist's thoughts on geoengineering.
J. Lovelock (2008)
Phil Trans R Soc A 366, 3883-3890
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Climate Change and Food Security Special Feature: Adapting agriculture to climate change.
S. M. Howden, J.-F. Soussana, F. N. Tubiello, N. Chhetri, M. Dunlop, and H. Meinke (2007)
PNAS 104, 19691-19696
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Sea levels: resolution and uncertainty.
R. Edwards (2007)
Progress in Physical Geography 31, 621-632
   PDF »


To Advertise     Find Products

Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)