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Published Online February 1, 2007
Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1136843

Brevia

Submitted on October 27, 2006
Accepted on January 25, 2007

Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections

Stefan Rahmstorf 1*, Anny Cazenave 2, John A. Church 3, James E. Hansen 4, Ralph F. Keeling 5, David E. Parker 6, Richard C. J. Somerville 5

1 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.
2 Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales, Toulouse, France.
3 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, Hobart, Australia.
4 NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA.
5 Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, USA.
6 Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
Stefan Rahmstorf , E-mail: rahmstorf{at}ozean-klima.de

We present recent observed climate trends for carbon dioxide concentration, global-mean air temperature and sea level, and we compare these trends to previous model projections as summarised in the 2001 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC scenarios and projections start in the year 1990, which is also the base year of the Kyoto protocol in which almost all industrialised nations have committed to binding reductions of their greenhouse gas emissions. The data available for the period since 1990 raise concerns that the climate system, in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current generation of models indicates.


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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)