Note to users. If you're seeing this message, it means that your browser cannot find this page's style/presentation instructions -- or possibly that you are using a browser that does not support current Web standards. Find out more about why this message is appearing, and what you can do to make your experience of our site the best it can be.

Published Online December 14, 2006
Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1135456

Reports

Submitted on September 22, 2006
Accepted on December 4, 2006

A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise

Stefan Rahmstorf 1*

1 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.

A semi-empirical relation is presented which connects global sea level rise to global mean surface temperature. It is proposed that for time scales relevant to anthropogenic warming, the rate of sea level rise is approximately proportional to the magnitude of warming above the pre-industrial temperature. This holds to good approximation for temperature and sea level changes during the 20th Century, with a proportionality constant of 3.4 mm/yr/°C. When applied to future warming scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this relationship results in a sea level rise in 2100 of 0.5 - 1.4 m above the 1990 level.


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Timing and magnitude of recent accelerated sea-level rise (North Carolina, United States).
A. C. Kemp, B. P. Horton, S. J. Culver, D. R. Corbett, O. van de Plassche, W. R. Gehrels, B. C. Douglas, and A. C. Parnell (2009)
Geology 37, 1035-1038
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Impact of anthropogenic subsidence on relative sea-level rise in the Fraser River delta.
S. Mazzotti, A. Lambert, M. Van der Kooij, and A. Mainville (2009)
Geology 37, 771-774
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Large-river delta-front estuaries as natural "recorders" of global environmental change.
T. S. Bianchi and M. A. Allison (2009)
PNAS 106, 8085-8092
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Sea levels: science and society.
R. Edwards (2008)
Progress in Physical Geography 32, 557-574
   PDF »
Sea levels: resolution and uncertainty.
R. Edwards (2007)
Progress in Physical Geography 31, 621-632
   PDF »
Comment on "A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise".
S. Holgate, S. Jevrejeva, P. Woodworth, and S. Brewer (2007)
Science 317, 1866b
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Comment on "A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise".
T. Schmith, S. Johansen, and P. Thejll (2007)
Science 317, 1866c
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Response to Comments on "A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise".
S. Rahmstorf (2007)
Science 317, 1866d
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Glaciers Dominate Eustatic Sea-Level Rise in the 21st Century.
M. F. Meier, M. B. Dyurgerov, U. K. Rick, S. O'Neel, W. T. Pfeffer, R. S. Anderson, S. P. Anderson, and A. F. Glazovsky (2007)
Science 317, 1064-1067
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »


To Advertise     Find Products

Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)