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Published Online March 16, 2006
Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1123560

Reports

Submitted on December 7, 2005
Accepted on March 7, 2006

Deconvolution of the Factors Contributing to the Increase in Global Hurricane Intensity

Carlos D. Hoyos 1*, Paula A. Agudelo 1, Peter J. Webster 1, Judith A. Curry 1

1 School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA USA.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
Carlos D. Hoyos , E-mail: choyos{at}eas.gatech.edu.

To better understand the change in global hurricane intensity since 1970, we examine the joint distribution of hurricane intensity with variables identified in the literature as contributing to the intensification of hurricanes. We use a methodology based on information theory, isolating the trend from the shorter term natural modes of variability. Results show that the increasing trend in number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes for the period 1970-2004 is directly linked to the trend in SST; other aspects of the tropical environment, while influencing shorter term variations in hurricane intensity, do not contribute substantially to the observed global trend.


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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)