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Submitted on October 11, 2005
Accepted on January 20, 2006
The Global Impact of Scaling-Up HIV/AIDS Prevention Programs in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
John Stover 1, Stefano Bertozzi 2, Juan-Pablo Gutierrez 2, Neff Walker 3, Karen A. Stanecki 4, Robert Greener 4, Eleanor Gouws 4, Catherine Hankins 4, Geoff P. Garnett 5, Joshua A. Salomon 6, J. Ties Boerma 7, Paul De Lay 4, Peter D. Ghys 4*
1 Futures Group/Constella, Glastonbury, CT 06033, USA. 2 National Institute of Public Health (INSP), Cuernavaca 62508, Mexico. 3 UNICEF, New York, NY 10017, USA. 4 United Nations Joint Programme on HIV/AIDS, Geneva CH-1211, Switzerland. 5 Imperial College, London SW7 2AZ, UK. 6 Harvard University, Boston, MA 02138, USA. 7World Health Organization, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland. 7 World Health Organization, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland.
* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
Peter D. Ghys , E-mail: ghysp{at}unaids.org
A strong, global commitment to expanded prevention programstargeted at sexual transmission and transmission among injectingdrug users, started now, could avert 28 million new HIV infectionsbetween 2005 and 2015. This figure is more than half of thenew infections that might otherwise occur during that periodin 125 low- and middle-income countries. Although preventingthese new infections would require investing about US$122 billionover this period, it would reduce future needs for treatmentand care. Our analysis suggests that it will cost about US$3900to prevent each new infection, but that this will produce asavings of US$4700 in foregone treatment and care costs. Thus,greater spending on prevention now would not only prevent morethan half the new infections that would occur from 2005 to 2015but would actually produce a net financial saving as futurecosts for treatment and care are averted.
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