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Published Online March 2, 2006
Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1119929

Reports

Submitted on September 8, 2005
Accepted on February 21, 2006

Changes in Surface Water Supply Across Africa with Predicted Climate Change

Maarten de Wit 1* and Jacek Stankiewicz 1

1 AEON - Africa Earth Observatory Network, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
Maarten de Wit , E-mail: maarten{at}cigces.uct.ac.za

Across Africa, perennial drainage density as a function of mean annual rainfall defines three regimes separated by threshold values of precipitation. This non-linear response of drainage to rainfall will most seriously affect regions in the intermediate, unstable, regime. A 10% decrease in precipitation in regions on the upper regime boundary (1000 mm/y) would reduce drainage by 17%, while in regions receiving 500 mm/y such a drop would cut 50% of surface drainage. Using predicted precipitation changes, we calculate that decrease in perennial drainage will significantly affect present surface water access across 25% of Africa by the end of this century.


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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)