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Published Online October 27, 2005
Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1115233

Reports

Submitted on May 24, 2005
Accepted on October 18, 2005

Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe

Dagmar Schröter 1*, Wolfgang Cramer 2, Rik Leemans 3, Colin I. Prentice 4, Miguel B. Araújo 5, Nigel W. Arnell 6, Alberte Bondeau 2, Harald Bugmann 7, Timothy R. Carter 8, Carlos A. Gracia 9, Anne C. de la Vega-Leinert 2, Markus Erhard 10, Frank Ewert 3, Margaret Glendining 11, Joanna I. House 4, Susanna Kankaanpää 8, Richard J. T. Klein 2, Sandra Lavorel 12, Marcus Lindner 13, Marc J. Metzger 3, Jeannette Meyer 13, Timothy D. Mitchell 14, Isabelle Reginster 15, Mark Rounsevell 15, Santi Sabaté 9, Stephen Sitch 2, Ben Smith 16, Jo Smith 17, Pete Smith 17, Martin T. Sykes 16, Kirsten Thonicke 4, Wilfried Thuiller 18, Gill Tuck 11, Sönke Zaehle 2, Bärbel Zierl 7

1 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
2 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.
3 Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
4 University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
5 University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, Madrid, Spain.
6 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Geography, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
7 Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule, Zürich, Switzerland.
8 Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
9 CREAF, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
10 IMK-IFU, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.
11 Agriculture and the Environment Division, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, UK.
12 Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, CNRS, Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble, France; Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, CNRS, Montpellier, France.
13 European Forest Institute, Joensuu, Finland.
14 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.
15 Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.
16 Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
17 University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK.
18 Kirstenbosch Research Center, South African National Biodiversity Institute, Cape Town, South Africa.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
Dagmar Schröter , E-mail: dagmar.schroeter{at}gmail.com

Impacts of global change will include changes in the supply of ecosystem services vital for human well-being. In a Europe-wide assessment, we investigated ecosystem service supply during the 21st century using a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land use change. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (e.g., increases in forest area and productivity), or offer opportunities (e.g., "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability due to a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (e.g., declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.


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