Note to users. If you're seeing this message, it means that your browser cannot find this page's style/presentation instructions -- or possibly that you are using a browser that does not support current Web standards. Find out more about why this message is appearing, and what you can do to make your experience of our site the best it can be.

Originally published in Science Express on 11 August 2005
Science 2 September 2005:
Vol. 309. no. 5740, pp. 1551 - 1556
DOI: 10.1126/science.1114867
Prev | Table of Contents | Next

Reports

Amplification of Surface Temperature Trends and Variability in the Tropical Atmosphere

B. D. Santer,1* T. M. L. Wigley,2 C. Mears,3 F. J. Wentz,3 S. A. Klein,1 D. J. Seidel,4 K. E. Taylor,1 P. W. Thorne,5 M. F. Wehner,6 P. J. Gleckler,1 J. S. Boyle,1 W. D. Collins,2 K. W. Dixon,7 C. Doutriaux,1 M. Free,4 Q. Fu,8 J. E. Hansen,9 G. S. Jones,5 R. Ruedy,9 T. R. Karl,10 J. R. Lanzante,7 G. A. Meehl,2 V. Ramaswamy,7 G. Russell,9 G. A. Schmidt9

The month-to-month variability of tropical temperatures is larger in the troposphere than at Earth's surface. This amplification behavior is similar in a range of observations and climate model simulations and is consistent with basic theory. On multidecadal time scales, tropospheric amplification of surface warming is a robust feature of model simulations, but it occurs in only one observational data set. Other observations show weak, or even negative, amplification. These results suggest either that different physical mechanisms control amplification processes on monthly and decadal time scales, and models fail to capture such behavior; or (more plausibly) that residual errors in several observational data sets used here affect their representation of long-term trends.

1 Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA.
2 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80303, USA.
3 Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA 95401, USA.
4 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Air Resources Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA.
5 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK.
6 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
7 NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA.
8 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
9 NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA.
10 NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC 28801, USA.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: santer1{at}llnl.gov

Read the Full Text


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions.
B. D. Santer, T. M. L. Wigley, P. J. Gleckler, C. Bonfils, M. F. Wehner, K. AchutaRao, T. P. Barnett, J. S. Boyle, W. Bruggemann, M. Fiorino, et al. (2006)
PNAS 103, 13905-13910
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century.
M. A. White, N. S. Diffenbaugh, G. V. Jones, J. S. Pal, and F. Giorgi (2006)
PNAS 103, 11217-11222
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Inaugural Article: Abrupt tropical climate change: Past and present.
L. G. Thompson, E. Mosley-Thompson, H. Brecher, M. Davis, B. Leon, D. Les, P.-N. Lin, T. Mashiotta, and K. Mountain (2006)
PNAS 103, 10536-10543
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations.
J. D. Neelin, M. Munnich, H. Su, J. E. Meyerson, and C. E. Holloway (2006)
PNAS 103, 6110-6115
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Anthropogenic and natural influences in the evolution of lower stratospheric cooling..
V. Ramaswamy, M. D. Schwarzkopf, W. J. Randel, B. D. Santer, B. J. Soden, and G. L. Stenchikov (2006)
Science 311, 1138-1141
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
The Radiative Signature of Upper Tropospheric Moistening.
B. J. Soden, D. L. Jackson, V. Ramaswamy, M. D. Schwarzkopf, and X. Huang (2005)
Science 310, 841-844
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Radiosonde Daytime Biases and Late-20th Century Warming.
S. C. Sherwood, J. R. Lanzante, and C. L. Meyer (2005)
Science 309, 1556-1559
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
The Effect of Diurnal Correction on Satellite-Derived Lower Tropospheric Temperature.
C. A. Mears and F. J. Wentz (2005)
Science 309, 1548-1551
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »


To Advertise     Find Products

Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)