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Published Online May 1, 2003
Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1082393

Reports

Submitted on January 15, 2003
Accepted on April 23, 2003

Influence of Satellite Data Uncertainties on the Detection of Externally Forced Climate Change

B. D. Santer 1*, T. M. L. Wigley 2, G. A. Meehl 2, M. F. Wehner 3, C. Mears 4, M. Schabel 4, F. J. Wentz 4, C. Ammann 2, J. Arblaster 2, T. Bettge 2, W. M. Washington 2, K. E. Taylor 1, J. S. Boyle 1, W. Brüggemann 5, C. Doutriaux 1

1 Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA.
2 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80303, USA.
3 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
4 Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA 95401, USA.
5 University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: santer1{at}llnl.gov.

Two independent analyses of the same satellite-based radiative emissions data yield tropospheric temperature trends that differ by 0.1°C/decade over 1979 to 2001. The troposphere warms appreciably in one satellite dataset, while the other dataset shows little overall change. These satellite data uncertainties are important in studies seeking to identify human effects on climate. A model-predicted "fingerprint" of combined anthropogenic and natural effects is statistically detectable only in the satellite dataset with a warming troposphere. Our findings show that claimed inconsistencies between model predictions and satellite tropospheric temperature data (and between the latter and surface data) may be an artifact of data uncertainties.


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Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)