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Published Online April 12, 2001
Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1061020

Reports

Submitted on March 23, 2001
Accepted on April 10, 2001

The Foot-and-Mouth Epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of Spread and Impact of Interventions

Neil Ferguson 1*, Christl Donnelly 1, Roy Anderson 1

1 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College School of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: Neil.Ferguson{at}ic.ac.uk..

We present an analysis of the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain over the first two months of spread of the virus. The net transmission potential of the pathogen and the increasing impact of control measures are estimated over the course of the epidemic to date. These results are used to parameterize a mathematical model of disease transmission that captures the differing spatial contact patterns between farms before and after the imposition of movement restrictions. The model is used to make predictions of future incidence and to simulate the impact of additional control strategies. Hastening the slaughter of holdings with suspected infection is predicted to slow the epidemic, but more drastic action, such as "ring" culling or vaccination of animals in areas surrounding infection foci, is essential to limit substantially the likely scale of the epidemic. Culling is predicted to be more effective than vaccination.


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